{"id":610,"date":"2016-07-18T18:13:24","date_gmt":"2016-07-18T21:13:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sbia.org.br\/lnlm\/?page_id=610"},"modified":"2016-07-18T18:13:24","modified_gmt":"2016-07-18T21:13:24","slug":"vol10-no3-art2","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/sbia.org.br\/lnlm\/publicacoes\/vol10-no3\/vol10-no3-art2\/","title":{"rendered":"Infer\u00eancia Bayesiana no Desenvolvimento de Previsores Neurais de Vaz\u00e3o Di\u00e1ria Utilizando Informa\u00e7\u00f5es de Precipita\u00e7\u00e3o"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>T\u00edtulo:<\/strong> Infer\u00eancia Bayesiana no Desenvolvimento de Previsores Neurais de Vaz\u00e3o Di\u00e1ria Utilizando Informa\u00e7\u00f5es de Precipita\u00e7\u00e3o<\/p>\n<p><strong>Autores:<\/strong> Leoc\u00e1dio, Caio Monteiro; Ferreira, Vitor Hugo<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><strong>Resumo:<\/strong> Este trabalho apresenta a utiliza\u00e7\u00e3o da infer\u00eancia bayesiana aplicada a perceptrons de m\u00faltiplas camadas (BMLP) para previs\u00e3o de vaz\u00e3o di\u00e1ria, incluindo algoritmos autom\u00e1ticos para sele\u00e7\u00e3o de entradas, estabiliza\u00e7\u00e3o de estrutura e controle de complexidade. A base de dados considerada inclui hist\u00f3ricos de vaz\u00e3o e precipita\u00e7\u00e3o em base di\u00e1ria para a bacia do Rio Grande, permitindo a avalia\u00e7\u00e3o da aplicabilidade da inclus\u00e3o da informa\u00e7\u00e3o de precipita\u00e7\u00e3o nos modelos de previs\u00e3o di\u00e1ria de vaz\u00e3o visando reduzir o erro de previs\u00e3o dos modelos neurais desenvolvidos. Seis estrat\u00e9gias de previs\u00e3o s\u00e3o comparadas, todas utilizando o BMLP por\u00e9m com espa\u00e7o de representa\u00e7\u00e3o das entradas distinto, incluindo modelos utilizando somente valores atrasados da s\u00e9rie de vaz\u00e3o e modelos que combinam valores atrasados de vaz\u00e3o e precipita\u00e7\u00e3o. O uso de vari\u00e1veis bin\u00e1rias para representa\u00e7\u00e3o do per\u00edodo seco, \u00famido e de transi\u00e7\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 testado. Os resultados obtidos mostram a viabilidade da aplica\u00e7\u00e3o do BMLP utilizando informa\u00e7\u00f5es de vaz\u00e3o e precipita\u00e7\u00e3o como entradas do modelo de previs\u00e3o de vaz\u00e3o di\u00e1ria, com estes modelos apresentando os melhores resultados para os per\u00edodos de teste considerados.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Palavras-chave:<\/strong> Previs\u00e3o de vaz\u00e3o di\u00e1ria; planejamento energ\u00e9tico; redes neurais; infer\u00eancia bayesiana aplicada a perceptrons de m\u00faltiplas camadas<\/p>\n<p><strong>P\u00e1ginas:<\/strong> 9<\/p>\n<p><strong>C\u00f3digo DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.21528\/lnlm-vol10-no3-art2\">10.21528\/lmln-vol10-no3-art2<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Artigo em PDF:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/sbia.org.br\/lnlm\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/07\/vol10-no3-art2.pdf\" rel=\"\">vol10-no3-art2.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Arquivo BibTex:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/sbia.org.br\/lnlm\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/07\/vol10-no3-art2.bib\" rel=\"\">vol10-no3-art2.bib<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00edtulo: Infer\u00eancia Bayesiana no Desenvolvimento de Previsores Neurais de Vaz\u00e3o Di\u00e1ria Utilizando Informa\u00e7\u00f5es de Precipita\u00e7\u00e3o Autores: Leoc\u00e1dio, Caio Monteiro; Ferreira, Vitor Hugo Resumo: Este trabalho apresenta a utiliza\u00e7\u00e3o da infer\u00eancia bayesiana aplicada a perceptrons de m\u00faltiplas camadas (BMLP) para previs\u00e3o <a href=\"https:\/\/sbia.org.br\/lnlm\/publicacoes\/vol10-no3\/vol10-no3-art2\/\" class=\"read-more\">Read More &#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":603,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-610","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Infer\u00eancia Bayesiana no Desenvolvimento de Previsores Neurais de Vaz\u00e3o Di\u00e1ria Utilizando Informa\u00e7\u00f5es de Precipita\u00e7\u00e3o - Learning and NonLinear Models<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sbia.org.br\/lnlm\/publicacoes\/vol10-no3\/vol10-no3-art2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Infer\u00eancia Bayesiana no Desenvolvimento de Previsores Neurais de Vaz\u00e3o Di\u00e1ria Utilizando Informa\u00e7\u00f5es de Precipita\u00e7\u00e3o - Learning and NonLinear Models\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"T\u00edtulo: Infer\u00eancia Bayesiana no Desenvolvimento de Previsores Neurais de Vaz\u00e3o Di\u00e1ria Utilizando Informa\u00e7\u00f5es de Precipita\u00e7\u00e3o Autores: Leoc\u00e1dio, Caio Monteiro; 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